In the ever-evolving landscape of the National Hockey League, the question arises: is the league becoming a tale of the haves and have-nots? A question that has been on the mind of many, as parity in the NHL has been touted as a defining characteristic that sets it apart from other major North American sports leagues.
The phenomenon of this divide can be attributed to various factors, with the difficulty of scoring goals in the NHL being a primary reason. In comparison to other major sports, NHL games tend to be lower scoring, leading to more unpredictable outcomes. The implementation of a hard salary cap and a playoff format that includes half of the teams in the league also contribute to the year-over-year shifts in team success.
However, recent developments have called into question the level of parity in the NHL. The league’s restructuring of the playoff format in 2013-14 and a surge in offensive production across the league have had an impact on the predictability of outcomes. With more shots and goals being scored, there has been a decrease in volatility and an increase in relatively foreseeable results.
Examining playoff data from the past decade reveals a trend of less parity than expected. The numbers indicate that if a team misses the playoffs one season, it is likely to miss them again the following year. This lack of turnover is evident in the consistent presence of certain teams in the postseason year after year.
A recent high-water mark in league parity was observed in the previous season, with 13 of the 16 playoff teams from the 2022-23 regular season returning to the playoffs in the following year. Changes within the Eastern and Western Conferences saw teams like the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, Minnesota Wild, and Seattle Kraken shifting positions in the playoff race.
Considering the implications of these trends, the focus shifts to the betting markets and their outlook on the upcoming season. Betting markets, particularly in futures, seek balanced action. However, sorting the teams by their implied probability of qualifying for the postseason reveals a trend towards teams that made the playoffs in the previous year being favored to do so again.
The Minnesota Wild, as the 16th team on the list, stands out as the only team in this ranking that did not make the playoffs in the previous season. This shift saw them leapfrog over the New York Islanders, who secured a playoff spot in the East with 94 points in the 2023-24 season.
As the NHL continues to navigate the complexities of team parity, the evolving landscape of the league raises questions about the future competitive balance among its teams. The interplay of scoring, playoff format changes, and offensive trends will continue to shape the narrative of haves and have-nots in the ever-competitive world of professional hockey.